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A recently discovered asteroid that has attracted the attention of astronomy community now has a slightly increased risk of influencing the earth.
The asteroid with the name 2024 YR4 has a chance of 2.2%to meet our planet on December 22, 2032, according to the European space authority. The risk assessment increased in the last week due to new observations of 1.2%.
Astronomers expect the percentage to develop if more observations are shared. If this asteroid follows the pattern of other almost earth asteroids after its discovery, the effects of the effects increase, according to the agency. For example, the asteroid apophis was once regarded as one of the most dangerous asteroids, with the potential to beat earth after its discovery in 2004. In 2021, scientists revised this opinion in a precise analysis of the asteroid orbit.
The more astronomers asteroids can observe for 2024 years, the more they can refine their understanding of their size and trajectory, which determine the probability of an effect.
“The more observations we get, the more we can localize and confirm the trajectory of the asteroid, which is most likely to turn out to be Flyby and has no effects,” says a blog post that the agency shared. “We therefore expect that the risk forecast can be steadily/gradually reduced to zero.”
The asteroid is estimated at 131 to 295 feet (40 and 90 meters).
The Space Rock has a “size area that is comparable to that of a large building,” said Dr. Paul Chodas, Manager of the Center for Nearly Series, or CNEOS in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California of NASA. Chodas added that the size of the asteroid that astronomers want to determine with follow-up observations using several telescopes are currently very uncertain.
“If it turns out that the asteroid is at the large end of its estimated size area, the effects could cause explosion damage up to 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the impact location,” said Chodas. “But in the unlikely case that it could affect it at all. The damage potential results from the incredibly high speed (approx. 17 kilometers per second or 38,028 miles per hour), in which the asteroid would enter the atmosphere. “
Asteroids of this size have an impact on earth every few thousand years and, according to ESA, can lead to serious damage in local regions.
In 1908, according to the Planetary Society, a 30-meter-wide-seaside seed in a remote Siberian forest of Russia met the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in a remote Siberian forest of Russia. The event called for trees and destroyed forests on 830 square miles (2,150 square kilometers).
In 2013, an asteroid with 20 meters wide (66 feet wide) of asteroids over Chelyabinsk, Russia, came to the earth’s atmosphere. It exploded in the air, released 20 to 30 – more energy than the first atomic bomb, which caused brightness to produce greater than the sun, the heat exuded, pested more than 7,000 buildings and injured more than 1,000 people.
To discover an asteroid that is new to science
The asteroid terrestrial Impact Last Alert System or Atlas, telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, on December 27th, said Davide Farnocchia, navigation engineer at JPL and CNEOS.
Automated asteroid warning systems that emit an alarm after determining the asteroid have a probability of unequal zero to collide with the earth.
Since the beginning of January, astronomers have used the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, the Danish telescope and the very large telescope in Chile to pursue the asteroid, which is currently more than 28 million miles (45 million kilometers) from Earth Move further away, said Farnocchia.
When the asteroid moves from the earth and become weaker, the researchers have to rely on larger telescopes to observe them. The heavenly object should be visible and disappear by the beginning of April because it continues its orbit around the sun. It will not return to the area around the world until 2028, said Farnocchia.
If 2024 YR4 disappears from the point of view before Space agencies can rule out an impact on the effects, the Space Rock remains on the risk list until it is back in sight in June 2028.
“With the available persecution data, we can predict the future position of an asteroid,” said Farnocchia. “The longer we follow an asteroid, the more precisely the prediction. If we collect additional data, the uncertainty in the position of 2024 in 2032 decreases. “
The NASA and the ESA regularly pursue thousands of asteroids near the earth, but depending on the size, the space rocks are not always easy to recognize. But improvements in asteroid survey technology and future asteroid spotting missions could recognize objects that astronomers could not see in the past. According to NASA, there are currently no other known large asteroids that have more than 1% chance to influence the earth.
Pursue a potential threat
Two international asteroid reaction groups, which were supported by the United Nations -the International Asteroid Warn Network, and the ESA Chairman Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, were activated in response to the level of threat.
The international asteroid warning network is responsible for coordinating the organizations that are involved in the persecution and characterization of the details of the asteroid – and, if necessary, the development of strategies for evaluating the consequences of an effect.
In the meantime, the advisory group for space mission planning, which was recently convened in Vienna, Austria, will be recommendations and evaluations to alleviate a possible impact if the asteroid remains a threat. Possible reduction tactics include the distraction of the asteroid in space, such as the demonstration of the double -seasful redirection test in 2022 or the evacuation of potentially affected regions on the ground, said Farnocchia.
The group continues to monitor 2024 years 4 years and will meet again at the end of April or early May, since Space Rock is disappearing from the focus to rethink whether recommendations have to be made.
“If a threat remained at the end of the current observation window in 2024 years, reduction measures could be taken into account,” said Farnocchia. “But the talk of reduction is premature. The priority is currently to continue to observe for 2024 years and to reduce its positional uncertainties in 2032, as this is likely to exclude the effects. “
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